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Russia-Ukraine gas conflict
#1
I want to ask my europeans and ukraines frends to comment recent gas tensions between Russia and Ukraine. I think, that main reason for that situation is political chaos in Ukraine. And, I think, that such irresponsible "democracy" should not be supported by West, but be punished by responsible democratic countries. What do you think about that?
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#2
What is the deal with Russia-Ukraine gas conflict?
I heard that Russia decided to rise the gas prices to Ukraine and Ukraine decided to rise the gas transit prices.
Where is the conflict?
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#3
Russia wanted Ukraine to pay debt for two month. Ukraine did it, but Russia can get confirmation from bank only at 11 january. That is why Russia put Ukraine into category "not trusted client". So, at 1 january both sides should signe up new contract for 2009. Russia rised up price for gas until 250 dollars but Ukraine wanted 201 dollars.So, contract was not signed up. Russia halted gus supplay to Ukraine because no debt money and no new contract. Ukraine start to use illegaly transit gas, wich going through her territory to the west consumer. Russia said, that for 2009 gas Ukraine should pay same price, as west consumers - 418 dollars. Ukraine just ignore Russia. This is conflict - Ukraine illegaly taking gas, wich going to the west.
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#4
Smile Hello, I'm a Romanian student. Yesterday night was very cold in my house because gas pressure was very low and the outside temperature was about -20 degrees Celsius. Romania receives less 30% gas from Russians. Why? Because Ukrainians steals gas paid by Europeans because they didn't agree with Russians. Do you consider this state act as a terrorist state? Who is actually Ukraine and what is the deal with European Union? :quoi
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#5
I think it is kind of tradition with Ukraine Smile . It ended before it will end now.
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#6
Ukraine is not a terrorist state.
I believe all of this is a misunderstanding during a harsh economic crisis.
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#7
Yes indeed it happens almost every year. Big Grin
But this year it is different because of the crisis... so who knows...

Actually I believe, the fact that Ukraine wants to join NATO is of considerable importance to the exising situation.
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#8
huh? how is NATO and gas related?
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#9
Yeah they are just thieves thats all. They cant pay thier debts to Russia and do not want to pay like all europeans for gas, so they just steal it becouse it is transit country. If by "missunderstanding" is meaned desire to not pay for what is consumed than yes it is serius missunderstanding.
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#10
Very simple. Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO.
It is a very strategic territory for Russia. And gas is just leverage to show that Ukraine is dependent of Russia Wink
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#11
Ukraine is not guilty in this conflict.
They needed gas for pumps to send it farther to EU countries. So they took the necessary gas.
This amount of gas is small.. Russia said that Ukraine was stealing gas but in reality they dropped the gas pressure themselves so that Ukraine looks bad. When EU experts came to the place to see what is happening Russia stopped the gas altogether.
I believe Russia is losing a lot with this behavior. There are even rumors that they don't have anymore gas and thats why they do not care.
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#12
russian999 Wrote:I want to ask my europeans and ukraines frends to comment recent gas tensions between Russia and Ukraine. I think, that main reason for that situation is political chaos in Ukraine. And, I think, that such irresponsible "democracy" should not be supported by West, but be punished by responsible democratic countries. What do you think about that?

I think you are just retelling Putin's lies, my dear Russian999. Your "responsible" government has cut off gas to many Europeans. Just to keep your promisses? Even the former Soviet Uninon never did it during. even during the cold war.
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#13
1.If Ukraine does not have money to buy the gas do not buy it - simple, or buy it less
(Anybody likes good cars but a lot of people do walk only)
2.Gas transit to Europe was paid so do not even touch it - simple, too!
(For example, somebody pays a ticket through the transit country (Ukraine) with luggage by train so this transit passenger shall be ready to loose 10-15-25% of the luggage, or not?) :banghead
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#14
neutral observer Wrote:1.If Ukraine does not have money to buy the gas do not buy it - simple, or buy it less
(Anybody likes good cars but a lot of people do walk only)

Not so neutral my friend...
When a country's economy and lives of many people depend on gas you don't have many choices.

neutral observer Wrote:2.Gas transit to Europe was paid so do not even touch it - simple, too!
(For example, somebody pays a ticket through the transit country (Ukraine) with luggage by train so this transit passenger shall be ready to loose 10-15-25% of the luggage, or not?) :banghead

Because Russia asked for a higher price for their gas Ukraine asked for a higher transit price - and they did it because the pumps that move the gas to Europe use gas when they work. So the cost of transit is more expensive.
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#15
The problem is not gas in fact - the problem is the independent (from Moscow) state – Ukraine - West and democracy oriented. Ukraine is making a lot of mistakes but anyway 70% of people are for EU perspective (but not NATO). They know there is alternative for development without that...

Russia is different... Recently Stalin was about to be recognized as Great Russian of all times!...
Do you know how most Russians and even some politicians call democracy in Russia? – The call it "dermocracy" (in Russian - soundlike "shit-ocracy"). You can find that in most internet Russian resources. This word was invented during the last term of Putin and speaks itself about real attitude to democratic values, rule of law and rights of people not only in Russia itself but in the whole world.... It’s really sad.
People are taught by politicians and leaders from TV and media in Russia that they are reborning now as "new energy empire" with world mission... We all have a chance to see now the first “fruits” of that mission in Europe…

Last year Putin did a "wise" thing, as they thought in Moscow, when contracted all Central Asian gas at $270-350 ... but world crises did a joke to Moscow....instead of extended monopoly in EU and super profits... they got a price fall for oil etc…and now just want to destabilize the situation to make the prices go UP.... Ukraine has no benefit in destabilization at all... Moscow is interested in that more than anybody...
Ukraine is just too close to Russia and is a "key" for European gas transit = hard currency for former KGB mobs now in Kremlin...

Ukraine was first ..Who is next?
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#16
Ukrainian patriotic point of view:

Russia is enemy number one for Ukraine.
We(Ukraine) should stop any economical cooperation and keep trying to sabotage EU-Russian relations

For EU citizens - Remember that your money for gas or oil will be used for bombs and missiles. The aims are Georgia,Ukraine any neighbor without strong defense or international guarantees.

All the cries of some Europeans about their frozen asses looks ridiculous for Ukrainians who face the threats from Russia that Ukraine should pay for supporting Georgia.

Ukraine just use it's own resources and possibilities to combat Russia and Europe should be happy that someone else had to stop Russian Imperialism.
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#17
I think that Russia is guilty. Putin's regime carries out a neo-imperial policy towards neighbours. Putin provokes conflicts and then blames everybody.
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#18
Putin is a big KGB lier! .... Moscow cut off the gas supply to EU to show the “political power” and give a lesson to another former republic of USSR...it's just a continuance of the war to Georgia we had a chance to see in summer.... now in form of “gas prices” confrontation with Ukraine…

LET’S USE A SIMPLE MATH:

Ukraine is using about 30% of its own gas resources, another 40% is buying in Central Asia (pumped via Russia) and only 30% is actually Russian gas! Ukraine is not 100% dependent of Russian gas contrary to many EU countries (and they know that in Moscow pretty good)!
Ukraine can't just USE 100% of gas designated for EU ....That is nonsense…Gas from tube going via Ukraine can only disappear if Russia is stopping its supply! Furthermore Putin confirmed that Ukraine has NOW about 22 billion cubic meters of gas in its gas storage facilities...PLUS is able to get about 50-60 million cubic meters a day from its own resources...So WHAT actually Ukraine was stealing if according to again Putin - 220 million cubic meters a day is enough for Ukraine!?
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#19
o
Guest Wrote:I think that Russia is guilty. Putin's regime carries out a neo-imperial policy towards neighbours. Putin provokes conflicts and then blames everybody.

It's very similar to what HITLER was doing ... when annexed first Czechoslovakia in 1938 ...later Poland..etc.....Europe and USA were just observing that ...and in 1939 it was already TOO late to stop the aggression... WAR became a reality for the whole world...
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#20
Whether it is guilty Ykraina? No! Its government that tries to transfer attention with internal problems on the external is guilty. How to unite round itself people? It is necessary to give them the general enemy and with it to struggle! Meanwhile doing itself a rating. The point of view Russian government as seems to me such: to repay a debt to Ykraina for its help of Georgia and to hint EU that in next time did not stand away from such actionsSmile
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#21
Olaf, would you ever sell something to a country at a price two or three times lower than the market price? Especially if your relations with this country have deteriorated recently. If Western countries think Russia should sell gas to Ukraine at $200 instead of $400, the market price, why wouldn't they themselves sell gas back to Ukraine at this price? I just don't understand why you think _Russia_ should give charity to Ukraine...
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#22
Of course, it is all about politics. Who questions that? In politics you put your interests first and then care for the rest. Take Russia's point of view. Ukraine wants to be part of NATO which Russia opposes. Ukraine supported Georgia in the conflict with Russia which again meant opposition to Russia. Therefore, when Ukraine asks for "special" gas prices, Russia has every right to deny that request. If you sell gas for 450 USD to all the European consumers, why do you have to make a special exception to Ukraine and sell it for 201 USD? As simple as that. Politics.

Imagine you are an entrepreneur. You live by making and selling clothes. The market price of a particular t-shirt is 1 dollar. So you sell it in your store for 1 dollar to your customers. Now you have a friend who cannot pay this 1 dollar for this shirt. So you make a decision to sell it for 20 cents to your friend. But anytime you can reconsider this decision especially when your "friend" is no longer a "friend".

Once again it is all politics. No question on that. But who does it differently?
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#23
Yes there just come some "patriots" of Ukraine and started thier anoing rumbling about hitler, KGB, georgia, USSR and so on. Matter is simple PAY for gas and it will be no problems. Want to be part of Europe than european price will suit you fine and we wont object either Smile . Pay your debt for gas ALREADY consumed and sign new contract that is all that needed from them but it seems too much to ask from "democratic" country .
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#24
I really care. Please I invite everyone to check the subjective Ukrainian position. There are clear numbers which uncover Russian gas fraud. Plus some gentle notes about Putin's dictatorship. Everyone is welcome.

Gas Wars: The Empire Strikes Back
http://www.ukraine.com/forums/politics/1...-back.html
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#25
ricky Wrote:Olaf, would you ever sell something to a country at a price two or three times lower than the market price? Especially if your relations with this country have deteriorated recently. If Western countries think Russia should sell gas to Ukraine at $200 instead of $400, the market price, why wouldn't they themselves sell gas back to Ukraine at this price? I just don't understand why you think _Russia_ should give charity to Ukraine...

Price for gas depends on cost of other energy resources, especially oil price. Desire of Kremlin to sell Russian gas at high world market and European prices is legal and fair but… The price formula for Russian gas until now remains a “Kremlin’s secret”. However it is more "a bogus secret" because with application of the international standards, GAAP formulas and price approach used by gas traders at spot American market it can be easily calculated - the market price of gas is correlated to the market price of oil.

Few years ago, during the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute in 2006, Putin clearly stated that price for gas depends on the Amsterdam Stock prices for crude oil, black oil, coal etc.

However, a conflict of 2009 is different and very strange… it’s more about politics. Moscow does not take into account market reality and except of strong desire to sell gas at high price, current price for Russian gas is not backed-up with anything, except political ambitions of the Kremlin. It’s very surprising to hear the prices Moscow offers to Ukraine - $250, $350, $400, $418, $450, $417 ….

PRICE CORRELATION - RUSSIAN GAS & WORDL MARKET OIL PRICES

1996 - OIL$ 17 - GAS $ 90
1999- OIL $ 10 - GAS $ 60
2000 - OIL$ 26 - GAS $ 75
2001 - OIL$ 30 - GAS $ 130
2002 - OIL$ 19 - GAS $ 100
2003 - OIL$ 25 - GAS $ 110
2004 - OIL$ 30 - GAS $ 125
2005 - OIL$ 50 - GAS $ 160
2006 - OIL$ 80 - GAS $ 200
2008 - OIL$ 100 - GAS $ 300
2009 - WORLD OIL $40-50 - RUSSIAN GAS 450 ????!!!!

The price for gas should be MARKET PRICE, not "Kremlin price" nor "Gazprom price" nor "Putin price" … as we see it now.
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