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Global Trends 2025 & Europe - AriRusila - 11-23-2008
I just took a glance at very interesting new report published on 21st November 2008 by the United States National Intelligence Council - Washington's main intelligence body. The report, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed, is published every four years to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities. This agency of agencies, formed in 1979, brings together analysis from each of America's multiple intelligence organizations to develop mid- to long-term strategic thinking for the country's security community.
Highlights
Here only few highlights of this 120 pages analysis:
* The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
* "Europe by 2025 will have made slow progress toward achieving the vision of current leaders and elites: a cohesive, integrated, and influential global actor," but not be a major military player. The European Union will be a "hobbled giant" crippled by internal bickering and a eurosceptic citizenry.
* "Europe will remain heavily dependent on Russia for energy in 2025, despite efforts to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy and lower greenhouse gas emissions."
* "Crime could be the gravest threat inside Europe as Eurasian transnational organisations - flush from involvement in energy and mineral concerns - become more powerful and broaden their scope."
* By 2025 "One or more governments in eastern or central Europe could fall prey to their domination," the authors believe about Eastern European organised crime.
(The full report can be downloaded from http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf) ).
My view
Intelligence Services do not have very high respect in my mind, but this report anyway has some noteworthy observations or views for further consideration.
The future of EU can very well be like forecasted in report – big economic and weak military player on globe suffering same time from gap between EU (eurosceptic) citizens and EU bureaucracy. I personally think that EU structure will develop in circles. First there is a core around old big players France-Germany, second circle will be the rest EU member states who have strong national interests or exceptions to core’s politics, third circle would be EU’s cooperation neighbours under Northern or Mediterranean dimension (including e.g. Turkey which EU probably can not absorb as member state) and forth circle will be the rest of he world with different cooperation schemes (Partnership agreement with Russia, transatlantic cooperation with USA etc).
The picture of EU’s energy dependency on Russia is surprisingly realistic having in mind EU’s ambitious “Supergrid” plan published mid-November 2008 and US’s and EU’s recent marketing for “southern energy corridor” - Nabucco-line.(More in my article “Powergame in EU-Russia summit” on 14.11.2008 in my Archives:Blog http://arirusila.wordpress.com ).
Organized crime indeed can be also big thread and my bet is, that Kosovo – if regarded as a state - has good change be first “captured” state; the local government already is leaded by drug lords and crime tribes in the centre of Balkan route.
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-23-2008
whatever :quoi
W H A T E V E R :oO
WhatEver :deg
Is it Finland or Denmark :mrgreen:
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-24-2008
:haha :haha
It's actually Nice,France, but keep it a secret ,will you?
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-24-2008
Aaaaaaaaaaa.... yeah right... speaks again
uper Thanks for the tip. As long as Macedonia is in Hellas ... things are fine.
And no, I'm not the guy who rolls around on bearings. He's too angry. But I know a good wink when I see one:
![[Image: 1212076608H8rnwa.jpg]](http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumbimg_274/1212076608H8rnwa.jpg)
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-24-2008
Oh... and I'm not the yogurt salesman either. Many have accused me of both. Somewhat disappointed though. I thought I write much better than both. In all languages. Probably a better programmer too. That's how we make a living here.... working for the man.
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-25-2008
:haha :haha :haha
All is good Aeneas..just remind me never to share a secret with you ! :-P
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-25-2008
Aphrodite Wrote::haha :haha :hahaI think you did way back in July or August... it's all good. Hey, I've spent a couple of weeks in Piraeus in September. Beautiful. It was work related so I didn't have all day to wander around but it was still great.
All is good Aeneas..just remind me never to share a secret with you ! :-P
αντίο
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-27-2008
Aeneas Wrote:Aaaaaaaaaaa.... yeah right... speaks againAhh..you know you can't get away with posting lame immitations of the EYE!! :-P
Thanks for the tip. As long as Macedonia is in Hellas ... things are fine.
And no, I'm not the guy who rolls around on bearings. He's too angry. But I know a good wink when I see one:
Aeneas Wrote:Oh... and I'm not the yogurt salesman either. Many have accused me of both. Somewhat disappointed though. I thought I write much better than both. In all languages. Probably a better programmer too. That's how we make a living here.... working for the manAll three of you? :haha :haha :haha
Aeneas Wrote:I think you did way back in July or August... it's all good. Hey, I've spent a couple of weeks in Piraeus in September. Beautiful. It was work related so I didn't have all day to wander around but it was still great.Your cyber identity would be It's all good then? :-P
αντίο
We say αντίο when we're leaving..
Are you leaving Aeneas?
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
Ne - Oxi one of those 2. Perhaps I'm Greek after all.
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
Aphrodite Wrote:All three of you? :haha :haha :hahaIf you only knew
Aphrodite Wrote:Your cyber identity would be It's all good then? :-PYou are great with clues.... so it is fun after all.... not really serious about everything in this world.. as proclaimed...
Aphrodite Wrote:We say αντίο when we're leaving..Oxi or Ne or ..... where is the wind blowing... looking for Carthage... or Rome...
Are you leaving Aeneas?
But I did answer your other question in the other realm across the Styx.
I might be a Greek ... what do you think?
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-27-2008
Aeneas Wrote:Would it make any difference if I did? I seriously doubt you're going to tell me anyway.Aphrodite Wrote:All three of you? :haha :haha :hahaIf you only knew
Aphrodite Wrote:Your cyber identity would be It's all good then? :-P
Aeneas Wrote:You are great with clues.... so it is fun after all.... not really serious about everything in this world.. as proclaimed...Well then ,you my friend have discovered the meaning of life ,the universe and everything!
uper Aphrodite Wrote:We say αντίο when we're leaving..
Are you leaving Aeneas?
Aeneas Wrote:Oxi or Ne or ..... where is the wind blowing... looking for Carthage... or Rome...A German historian once said that being a "Hellene" is more than a mere nationality; it is in fact an adjective describing (certain) people. Maybe you're one of those then
But I did answer your other question in the other realm across the Styx.
I might be a Greek ... what do you think?
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
Aphrodite Wrote:A German historian once said that being a "Hellene" is more than a mere nationality; it is in fact an adjective describing (certain) people. Maybe you're one of those thenI am so Hellene that I am MANY of them
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
Does that approach work for Moctezuma and Europhil American and the whole host of characters from across the Styx as well? :? No need to tell me.....
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-27-2008
Uhm..I lost you there ..
What approach?
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
From one Hellene to many...
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-27-2008
Can you be more clear about it? I honestly don't know what you mean.
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aeneas - 11-27-2008
:roll: :roll: :roll: Okay then.. no problem. Anyways.. my reply was in the Thracian liberation front thing.
Have a great day Aphrodite!
Re: Global Trends 2025 & Europe - Aphrodite - 11-27-2008
I knew I wouldn't get a straight reply from you anyway..
Good day to you,it's night time here