The true scale of swine flu

[Faw_Peter]

The official figure for the number of people who've contracted swine flu stands at 6,538.

But it seems increasingly likely that this "official statistic" significantly underestimates the true scale of the problem.

The figures are compiled by the Health Protection Agency, and are based on the number of laboratory confirmed cases - that's people who have undergone a swab-test for the virus that has proved positive for infection.

But if you ring your GP today and try to make an appointment complaining of flu-like symptoms, the chances are you'll be told to stay at home, try and get your fever down, and get some rest.
In the vast majority of cases, where the infection is proving to be quite mild, that's good, sensible advice. It certainly helps to minimise the spread of infection around the doctor's surgery, but obviously if no test is conducted no report is forwarded to the Health Protection Agency and the case doesn't show up in the official statistics.

[Peach]

WHO warns swine flu 'unstoppable'
WHO calls for vigilance over swine flu
The UN's top health official has opened a forum in Mexico on combating swine flu by saying that the spread of the virus worldwide is now unstoppable.
World Health Organization head Margaret Chan added that the holding of the meeting in Cancun showed confidence in Mexico, which has been hard hit.
The WHO says most H1N1 cases are mild, with many people recovering unaided.
As the summit opened, the UK alone was projecting more than 100,000 new cases of H1N1 a day by the end of the summer.
As the peak of the flu season approaches in South America, some areas have declared a public health emergency.
El Salvador reported its first death from swine flu, a day after Paraguay reported its first fatality.
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[Terry]

What scientists know about swine flu?
Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.
It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.
But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.
UK experts at the National Institute for Medical Research outlined on Friday the work they are due to start on samples of the virus sent from the US.
The research, being done at the World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill, will be vital for working out the structure of the virus, where it came from, how quickly it is capable of spreading and its potential to cause illness.