Russia-Ukraine gas conflict

[Guest]

...You know we can blame EU becouse they done nothing to affect Ushenko. We know that Russia hasnt much leverage on him but EU does and they could avoid truble if they heeded warnings. So EU in thier convinient apathy have some share of blame.
.

Are you a total idiot? You warned us about Ukraine --not about YOU! Look, you (Russia) has a fight with Ukraine, it ain't our f*cking business in Europe. Did you ask us to help you in Georgia? Nope. You did what you had to do and told us to keep our nose out. Ukraine was YOUR problem. But when you shut off our gas, you made it our problem. That was a biiiiigggg mistake! Cause now we am going to smile at you and pretend everything is almost normal, but only because we still need your gas --but all the time we are smiling we are gonna be making plans and building different pipelines to get energy from somewhere else as soon as possible --and its gonna be a lot sooner than you think. So Russia had better be nice to Ukraine because in two to three years Ukraine will be the only real customer you have left --and even Ukraine won't need your f*cking gas because we will sell it to her just to f*ck you the way you just f*cked us. Take away your gas and you got shit. Learn to eat it because pretty soon we ain't selling you anymore food either.

That is pretty much it. This is the outcome of "smart" Putin political decisions. This is how EU feels about Russia. You can be sure that if some people in Ukraine liked Russiabefore, now after this gas conflict Russia has lost its supporters. Bonehead politics by Putin (or Medvedev the leader of Russia on paper)

[BK]

Hello, I'm a Romanian student. Yesterday night was very cold in my house because gas pressure was very low and the outside temperature was about -20 degrees Celsius. Romania receives less 30% gas from Russians. Why? Because Ukrainians steals gas paid by Europeans because they didn't agree with Russians. Do you consider this state act as a terrorist state? Who is actually Ukraine and what is the deal with European Union? :quoi

No, Ukraine is not a terrorist state. Russia shut off Ukraines gas first. Then Russia stopped supplying transit gas ---the gas needed to deliver the gas-- because Russia wanted to force Ukraine to use Ukrainian reserves so that Russia could then force Ukraine to sign a bad contract. Ukraine refused, but it kept delivering as much gas as it could to Europe. Russia reduced the gas to Europe. Ukraine used some of its own gas to make deliveries, but only a little. Europe complained but evenly --it did not blame Russia or Ukraine, it blamed BOTH of them. This upset Russia very much so RUSSIA shut off ALL of the gas to punish Europe and force Ukraine to accept a bad contract. And still the EU was neutral but it agreed to send monitors to make sure that Ukraine did not steal any gas.

The EU monitors came and Russia still refused to turn all of the gas. Instead Russia played games designed to make Ukraine use its reserves and shut-off gas to its own people. The EU STILL refused to blame Ukraine and so Russia continued refusing to turn on all of the gas. Then Germany told Putin that it would no longer be able to support Russia or help build more pipelines if Russia did not settle its problems with Ukraine and turn back on the gas. Forty-eight hours later Russia reached an agreement with Ukraine and finally turned on ALL the gas.

Since then EU monitors have stated that Ukraine did not steal gas for its own use after 1 January AND that Russia had no legitimate excuse for not turning on all of the gas when the EU monitors were in place.

I'm sorry you were cold. But ask yourself again, WHO turned off the gas to Ukraine and then to ALL of Europe IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER? Not Ukraine. Ukraine made mistake, but it did not kill anyone. Russia's decision to turn off all of the gas caused the death of at least 12 people and the loss of hundreds of millions of Euros in Europe. You and millions of toher people in Europe were cold because Russia put Russian political and economic interests before your and anyone elses comfort. Russia turned off all the gas. Not Ukraine. So, is Ukraine a terrorist state? No. Is Russia? That's not the question you asked, so I won't answer it.

[SiD]

Are you a total idiot? You warned us about Ukraine --not about YOU! Look, you (Russia) has a fight with Ukraine, it ain't our f*cking business in Europe. Did you ask us to help you in Georgia? Nope. You did what you had to do and told us to keep our nose out. Ukraine was YOUR problem. But when you shut off our gas, you made it our problem. That was a biiiiigggg mistake! Cause now we am going to smile at you and pretend everything is almost normal, but only because we still need your gas --but all the time we are smiling we are gonna be making plans and building different pipelines to get energy from somewhere else as soon as possible --and its gonna be a lot sooner than you think. So Russia had better be nice to Ukraine because in two to three years Ukraine will be the only real customer you have left --and even Ukraine won't need your f*cking gas because we will sell it to her just to f*ck you the way you just f*cked us. Take away your gas and you got shit. Learn to eat it because pretty soon we ain't selling you anymore food either.

I am not Russia you "smart guy". Thats first. It want cold in my place so i can assume it really has not much effect on me exept for emotions insoired by Ukrain government behevior and people like you. EU could prevent crisis it hasnt left a finger so i do not see why it isnt your f.....ng business since Russia wasnt left without gas. Why Ukrain government was unreasanable as it was i have no idea.
About your opinion or treats or whanewer they intended to be i would take previlage not to shake in fear. Better try to write without so many F words and insults.

[manro1]

Look Sid you are giving bad name to all us Russians by being a bit dense.
We turned the gas off because we wanted more money. DID WE GET MORE MONEY? NO. Europe froze their asses off for what? We suffered by being labled as "unrelable partners". Just look at the facts and stop being stuborn.

[Guest]

Look Sid you are giving bad name to all us Russians by being a bit dense.
We turned the gas off because we wanted more money. DID WE GET MORE MONEY? NO. Europe froze their asses off for what? We suffered by being labled as "unrelable partners". Just look at the facts and stop being stuborn.

Sid is a hardheaded person.I think sid has no arguments , so his tactik is to denay everythingand act like he doesn't get it.

[SiD]

Look Sid you are giving bad name to all us Russians by being a bit dense.
We turned the gas off because we wanted more money. DID WE GET MORE MONEY? NO. Europe froze their asses off for what? We suffered by being labled as "unrelable partners". Just look at the facts and stop being stuborn.

I havent turned off anything i suppose you know that and of course you have right not to believe official versions. Besides i am speaking for myself (as anyone else i suppose) do not remember wenn i was elected some representative of Russia.

Sid is a hardheaded person.I think sid has no arguments , so his tactik is to denay everythingand act like he doesn't get it.

I just do not bother to repeat. This topic is large enough you can find all you need just by reading it all if you disagree with my opinion than i will survive somehow .

[Guest]

Look Sid you are giving bad name to all us Russians by being a bit dense.
We turned the gas off because we wanted more money. DID WE GET MORE MONEY? NO. Europe froze their asses off for what? We suffered by being labled as "unrelable partners". Just look at the facts and stop being stuborn.

I havent turned off anything i suppose you know that and of course you have right not to believe official versions. Besides i am speaking for myself (as anyone else i suppose) do not remember wenn i was elected some representative of Russia.

Sid is a hardheaded person.I think sid has no arguments , so his tactik is to denay everythingand act like he doesn't get it.

I just do not bother to repeat. This topic is large enough you can find all you need just by reading it all if you disagree with my opinion than i will survive somehow .

I know you will. You are so stiff you can't see the otherside of the coin.

[BK]

Are you a total idiot? You warned us about Ukraine --not about YOU! Look, you (Russia) has a fight with Ukraine, it ain't our f*cking business in Europe. Did you ask us to help you in Georgia? Nope. You did what you had to do and told us to keep our nose out. Ukraine was YOUR problem. But when you shut off our gas, you made it our problem. That was a biiiiigggg mistake! Cause now we am going to smile at you and pretend everything is almost normal, but only because we still need your gas --but all the time we are smiling we are gonna be making plans and building different pipelines to get energy from somewhere else as soon as possible --and its gonna be a lot sooner than you think. So Russia had better be nice to Ukraine because in two to three years Ukraine will be the only real customer you have left --and even Ukraine won't need your f*cking gas because we will sell it to her just to f*ck you the way you just f*cked us. Take away your gas and you got shit. Learn to eat it because pretty soon we ain't selling you anymore food either.

I am not Russia you "smart guy". Thats first. It want cold in my place so i can assume it really has not much effect on me exept for emotions insoired by Ukrain government behevior and people like you. EU could prevent crisis it hasnt left a finger so i do not see why it isnt your f.....ng business since Russia wasnt left without gas. Why Ukrain government was unreasanable as it was i have no idea.
About your opinion or treats or whanewer they intended to be i would take previlage not to shake in fear. Better try to write without so many F words and insults.

SiD, you miss the point. I am sure that "EUsaysFU" could have been politer but his message wouldn't have been as clear. It is exactly what I have been trying to explain before. Russia had a dispute with Ukraine. When the gas deal fell apart because of Yushenko, a lot of people in the EU were angry at the Ukrainian political mess. But when Russia shut-off the gas to Ukraine a lot of people in the EU started asking themselves, "what could we do if we had a contract disagreement and Russia shut off the gas in the middle of winter." And they realised that the answer was "Absolutely nothing" and that made Europeans angry, but this time at Russia. (And even if Europe HAD blame Russia and yelled at Ukraine, so what? Ukraine does not listen to the EU anymore than it does to Russia.) Ukraine took a little gas. Big deal. They were still delivering gas so Russia wasn't really losing anything. And because Russia had stopped supplying Ukraine with gas, Europe understood Ukraine's position: Ukraine clearly had to preserve its reserves for its own people$. Any other country in Europe probably would have done the same thing. So what did Russia do? It shut off ALL the gas and FORCED the EU to get involved. But even after the EU sent monitors, this was not enough for Russia. It wanted the EU to take Russias side against Ukraine. And the EU refused and STILL refuses to do this. It blames BOTH but sympathises more with Ukraine.

Europe, like the rest of the world, is suffering from the financial crisis but Europe is certainly more developed and in better shape to survive it than Russia is. People in Europe now KNOW that the only way they can protect themselves from being treated like Ukraine was is to find other suppliers and energy sources. And they will do this. And they will do it quickly. You overestimate their dependency of Russia and underestimate their ability to act when they have to. Until now, talk about diversification was just that, talk. Now, it is a necessity. In this context, a recent survey in Poland revealed that the Polish people are willing to pay significantly higher prices in order to replace their use of Russian gas. If Russia does not do something soon to address European anger then in a few years it will face an economic disaster that will make the 90s collapse of its economy seem like a mild recession.

[SiD]

On 7 January 2009, all Russian gas flow to Europe through Ukraine was halted amid mutual accusations between the two parties. According to Prime Minister Putin, Ukraine closed the last transit pipeline on 7 January 2009 at 7 a.m., and when Russia saw that no gas was going to Western Europe, completely stopped the gas supply to Ukraine at 17:40 on the same day. According to Russian officials there was no longer any point delivering the gas because Kiev had shut down the pipelines. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's spokesperson said that Ukraine had to immediately open transit. In its official statement Gazprom said that "Ukraine has been sabotaging the transit of gas to European countries and has practically declared a gas blockade of Europe."
Ukraine denied the charges and blamed Russia for the complete halt in gas flow to Europe. According to Ukrainian officials Russia was deliberately starving Europe of gas, they also noted that "Ukraine has no technical capability for stopping the pumping of Russian gas onto its territory, as all of the gas-(pumping) stations through which gas is supplied to Ukraine are located in Russia".In a telegram sent to the leadership of the European Union and heads of European states that consume Russian natural gas, President Yushchenko said that on 5 January 2009 262 million cubic meters of Russian gas was supplied, on 6 January 2009 at 9 a.m. 93 million cubic meters, and on 6 January 2009 at 11.30 a.m. 73 million cubic meters. The president also said that Russia plans to stop or considerably reduce Russian gas transit through Ukraine. "For your information, Ukraine consumes only the gas it produces itself and gas pumped into Ukrainian storage facilities, which has been paid for in full", he also said.

BK we are going in circles. From your perspective you totally right. But you argue with me assuming that i exept your view on who is to blame for gas blockade. About what would be or wouldnt be or possible or whanever we will see in due time.

[Guest]

I am just wandering what good has came out of this conflict for me as Russian?
1. Is Ukraine on its knees now? NO
2. Is Ukraine paying $450 as we wanted to? NO
3. Is Ukraine going to pay us what they supposibly owed to us. NO! RUSSIA DROPED ALL CLAIMS! WHY????
4.Are we still sueing Ukraine in Copengagen court? NO
All this stand off , freezing poeple in Europe I would like to know why?
Why? What was the point?
JUST FOUND THIS ON FORUM ANYONE CARES TO ANSWER?

[BK]

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Marko January 21, 2009, 05:05
I think this is not the end of the gas dispute.Because the USA(satana)will tray some other vay to make more problems to Russia. This is just a little paranoid, but not completely. The U.S. does not have to do much; it simply waits for Russia to give it opportunities to reduce Russian influence, and Russia keeps on givin the U.S. such opportunities --like by shutting off the gas to Europe.

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen

Lets get to the basics.
During 2008 Ukraine was buying Russian gas for 169$ for 1000 cubes and selling it for ALL Ukraine private and business sector for almost 300$. And ALL gas consumers: private, corporate and government have paid their bills for gas. ALL OF THEM. That means Ukraine HAS about twice much money they supposed to have to payoff 2 billions $ debt to Gasprom. No, actually the gas was sold to Ukrainian consumers through RUE, a corrupt intermediary owned and controlled by Gazprom who received 50% of the NET "profits." It is believed that a great deal of this money went to corrupt politicians in both Ukraine and Russia but but no one knows who got what. Gazprom recently announced that they are examining URE's finances but they have not made a public report yet and Firtash, (the RUE's main Ukrainian partner) certainly isn't talking. On the plus side, with RUE now out of the picture, it means that Ukrainians will actually be paying less, not more, for gas this year.

Ukraine asks for 2 billion $ credit claiming it doesn’t have the money, European bankers what how Ukraine currency inflating and that despite 18 billion$ they already loaned them Ukraine still comes short every year and in current Financial credit crisis banks are not willing to grand them a loan. Ukraine's financial reportings and records are a mess - no argument there. Western oversight should make things a more transparent (the loan came with a lot of strings and IMF people are now sitting in Kyiv reviewing things and implementing reforms.) For now, it seems clear that the government of Ukraine will be able to pay its bills --a few companies (owned in large part by Russian investors) will have serious problems paying THEIR foreign debts.

Ukraine singed transit charter that they guaranty energy transit no matter what. I believe you are referring Section 7 of the Energy Charter Treaty. Please read it. It does NOT require a country to finance transit, nor to transit gas if that would undermine its own distribution system or threaten its own people And January 1 2009 new contract gas for Ukraine was not signed, Ukraine siphoned gas from European pipeline and 6 days later stopped transit completely. Not true again. Russia cut off ALL gas so there was no gas for Ukraine to transmit.] Ukraine needs 1 pipeline and they closed 4 channeling all gas for themselves. Half-truth. After RUSSIA stopped all gas Ukraine had to redirect pipelines to supply its people from its reserves.Which is why Gas didn’t go though Ukraine at first attempt. TRANSIT pipeline was EMPTY while it supposed to constantly have over 100 million cubes of gas in it at all times(if I understand it correctly). You apparently don't understand it correctly. And you ignore the fact that Russia was playing games and refused to turn on ALL of the gas when, as events later prove, it could have done so and normal transit would have resumed.

Ukraine has the money to pay for gas but they don’t. They pay everything late. It is a terrible but common business practice here (and in some other countries too)
Ukraine refused to sign best deal on the market right now of 250$ per 1000 cubic miters. Ukraine now has a better deal than the fixed price offered it.
Ukraine ignored transit charter obligations to Europe and cut them gas without any warning. RUSSIA SHUT OFF ALL GAS TO UKRAINE - THIS IS UNDISPUTED BY EITHER SIDE
It was PURELY Political decision that came from Ukraine president himself, Yushenko screwed up the previous negotiations but Putin personally gave the ok to shut-off ALL of the gasand it originated from Nabucco pipeline scammers The so-called scammers had no control over what Russia did or does. The people who underestimated their desire to have energy security. Europe would rather send NATO troops to guard transit pipeline then invest into Nabucco and become vulnerable to many more unstable transit countries. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey already made their choice. They choose Russia. Turkey, who is already in NATO, will happily agree to a dozen pipelines - it just wants to be admitted to the EU ... and now it likely will be

Now Nabucco authors see a need to destabilize Ukraine as much as they can to create risks or gas piracy for years so it would make Europe unstable forcing investment capital to go to other countries like United States for example. Clinton Democrats will ensure Europe high risks Years. So I think as long as Americans have their man in Ukraine, Europe will have no guaranties for transit. No one has accused Ukraine of stealing anything since the gas was resumed. Europeans no longer have energy security because the EU now KNOWS that Russia will not hesitate to shut off the gas for political reasons -and what was simply talk about diversification will soon become a reality
Standard and Poors will make sure that everybody has lower ratings than United States for next 100 years and offer World to buy sub prime derivatives version 2.0; News Corp, CNN, BBC etc will advertise Failed Europe and Triple A sub prime derivatives versions 2 and 3 Governments purchase U.S. securities because they have more trust in the U.S. economy than in their own financial markets --hopefully that will change; China alone is now facing paper loses of a TRILLION dollars.
And Europe will be stuck with unpredictable Orange and Rose revolution fans for as long as they support it.
[color=#FF0000]Yes. But the Orange flag shall soon be taken from Yushenko and passed to Julia and then we shall see what happens...]

And the rest of this posting was not worth the effort of answering ...

[Guest]

I am just wandering what good has came out of this conflict for me as Russian?
1. Is Ukraine on its knees now? NO
2. Is Ukraine paying $450 as we wanted to? NO
3. Is Ukraine going to pay us what they supposibly owed to us. NO! RUSSIA DROPED ALL CLAIMS! WHY????
4.Are we still sueing Ukraine in Copengagen court? NO
All this stand off , freezing poeple in Europe I would like to know why?
Why? What was the point?
JUST FOUND THIS ON FORUM ANYONE CARES TO ANSWER?

ONLY PUTIN CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS. AND RIGHT NOW I DON'T THINK HE HAS ANY GOOD ANSWERS TO THEM EITHER.

[BK]

BK we are going in circles. From your perspective you totally right. But you argue with me assuming that i exept your view on who is to blame for gas blockade. About what would be or wouldnt be or possible or whanever we will see in due time.

No, I am trying a different approach.) Lets forget who is right or wrong in the dispute between Ukraine and Russia. Would you agree with successful politicians or businessmen who say that what people BELIEVE is often more important than the actual facts? And that it is pretty clear that Europe believes that BOTH sides were wrong? Putin himself has complained bitterly about being blamed along with Ukraine --but is this the proper response? Do you think that Europe wants to be told again who was to blame? They have decided that both sides are to blame and it is unlikly that anything ANYONE says is going to change their opinion. So the question is, what should Putin do about it? What do you do if a really good customer in your restaurant tells you that his soup tasted bad? Do you tell him that he is mistaken, there must be something wrong with his tongue? Or do you say, "Really?? I'm so sorry you didn't enjoy it" and give him a free lunch coupon? Which makes more sense from a business perspective?

[SiD]

No, I am trying a different approach.) Lets forget who is right or wrong in the dispute between Ukraine and Russia. Would you agree with successful politicians or businessmen who say that what people BELIEVE is often more important than the actual facts? And that it is pretty clear that Europe believes that BOTH sides were wrong? Putin himself has complained bitterly about being blamed along with Ukraine --but is this the proper response? Do you think that Europe wants to be told again who was to blame? They have decided that both sides are to blame and it is unlikly that anything ANYONE says is going to change their opinion. So the question is, what should Putin do about it? What do you do if a really good customer in your restaurant tells you that his soup tasted bad? Do you tell him that he is mistaken, there must be something wrong with his tongue? Or do you say, "Really?? I'm so sorry you didn't enjoy it" and give him a free lunch coupon? Which makes more sense from a business perspective?

Very right question. Why to anger good customer if you have opportunity not to do it? You and i and any man with reason wouldnt block gas to Europe becouse it simply would be not in our interests should we be in power ther. Simpler is just continue suply but lessen amount to the amount of stealing and let costomers deal with transit country, but not to shut supply complietly. Usually we need to look in whos interests is event? Russia? Sory i do not see them, please give me some.

[BK]

No, I am trying a different approach.) Lets forget who is right or wrong in the dispute between Ukraine and Russia. Would you agree with successful politicians or businessmen who say that what people BELIEVE is often more important than the actual facts? And that it is pretty clear that Europe believes that BOTH sides were wrong? Putin himself has complained bitterly about being blamed along with Ukraine --but is this the proper response? Do you think that Europe wants to be told again who was to blame? They have decided that both sides are to blame and it is unlikly that anything ANYONE says is going to change their opinion. So the question is, what should Putin do about it? What do you do if a really good customer in your restaurant tells you that his soup tasted bad? Do you tell him that he is mistaken, there must be something wrong with his tongue? Do you tell him that the waiter peed in it? Or do you say, "Really?? I'm so sorry you didn't enjoy it" and give him a free lunch coupon? Which makes more sense from a business perspective?

Very right question. Why to anger good customer if you have opportunity not to do it? You and i and any man with reason wouldnt block gas to Europe becouse it simply would be not in our interests should we be in power ther. Simpler is just continue suply but lessen amount to the amount of stealing and let costomers deal with transit country, but not to shut supply complietly. Usually we need to look in whos interests is event? Russia? Sory i do not see them, please give me some.

SiD, are you are still trying to figure out the "truth" with a capital "T" , or are you trying to understand WHY Europe BELIEVES that Russia is at least partly to blame and MIGHT have shut-off the gas to Europe and then tried to blame Ukraine for it? If you really want to understand, I will try to explain Europe's reaction to you. First, do you agree that the following statements are accepted as true by Russia, Ukraine and Europe:

1. Russia stopped delivering gas FOR Ukraine on January 1 after negotiations for a new contract failed.
2. It takes about 21mcm of gas a day to transmit gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine (so-called "technical gas")
3. After Russia stopped delivering gas for Ukraine, Russia expected Ukraine to use its own gas supplies to transit gas to Europe
4. Instead of using its own gas, Ukraine used gas intended for Europe for technical gas and as a result delivered less gas to Europe than Russia was sending to Europe
5, Russia reduced the flow of gas to Europe by the amount that Ukraine was using
6. Ukraine continued to use Russian supplied gas for transit so Europe received even less gas
7. Ukraine reconfigured the pipeline flows to maintain domestic supplies from its reserves
8. The gas was shut-off to Europe
9. The EU placed independent gas monitors in Ukraine and Russia
10. Russia did not resume full delivery of gas to Europe after the EU monitors were in place.

SiD, remember - These are just bare facts, and I am not arguing that any one of these actions was right or wrong or offering any explanations or defenses --yet. . If you agree that they are accepted by Russia, Ukraine and Europe and you are truly interested in understanding Europes position then we can continue and both of us might learn something.

[SiD]

I do not think that amid mutual aqusations from both sides we can find truth with 'T". Nor was i sayng that i blame just one side. What is frustrating that many people think that Russia stoped gas supplies to Europe but have no decent explonation why is it in Russian or someones interests. Most favorite: Russia playng muscles. Bah, seven ills one answer? Lough trough tears. Other interesting is that it just there is no gas in Russia, nothing to sell. No proofs though, but amongst others it looks not so loughable. Putin who wants to show place of Europe and how they dependent on gas supplies from Russia is also really odd, why to show with expenses and risk what was already known? Try to blame Ukrain for gas problems could be version but gain isnt worth the risk, as you pointed by such act Russia brought critic on itself not Ukraine and that is easily predicted (who was blamed for S Osetian war? heh to expect such attitude to change is foolish), not to mention it is WERY poor for business to do it during crisis is really extreme. Parhaps i missed some version?

About your points they are correct parhaps questionable are amounts of gas but in general all true facts.
Exept for 10th if you hear side of our officials it is gas delievery was resumed, not in full becouse they needed test delievery first but it couldnt be done becouse gas stuck on the border of Ukraine.
In general we can change 10 to After placing EU monitors gas delievery was not resumed with following mutual occusations of Ukrain and Russia.

[BK]

.... What is frustrating that many people think that Russia stoped gas supplies to Europe but have no decent explonation why is it in Russian or someones interests... Try to blame Ukrain for gas problems could be version but gain isnt worth the risk.. ...Perhaps i missed some version?

About your points they are correct parhaps questionable are amounts of gas but in general all true facts.
Exept for 10th if you hear side of our officials it is gas delievery was resumed, not in full becouse they needed test delievery first but it couldnt be done becouse gas stuck on the border of Ukraine.
In general we can change 10 to After placing EU monitors gas delievery was not resumed with following mutual occusations of Ukrain and Russia.

I agree Fact 2 should be changed to make it both more general and more specific: How about:
2. Gas pressure in pipelines must be maintained at a certain level and additional energy provided (by so-called technical gas) in order to transmit gas

As for fact 10: "Needed test delivery" is an explanation, just like "wasn't technically possible" is an explanation and right now we just want to stick to the "bare" fact that everyone can agree on. I have deliberately tried to make each fact as neutral as possible. So can you agree that:
10. Russia did not resume full delivery of gas to Europe after the monitors were in place."

And I forgot a fact which maybe the starting point for understanding Europe's reaction so lets call it Fact 0:

Fact 0: In December of 2008, leaders in both Russia and Ukraine publicly stated that Europe's gas supplies would not be affected by their contract dispute.

Assuming you accept facts 0 through 10, I want you to carefully read the statement about who was responsible for the gas shut-off that you quoted for me a few postings ago. (You know we might be better off conducting this dialogue by email instead of monopolising the forum...)

[SiD]

I agree Fact 2 should be changed to make it both more general and more specific: How about:
2. Gas pressure in pipelines must be maintained at a certain level and additional energy provided (by so-called technical gas) in order to transmit gas

As for fact 10: "Needed test delivery" is an explanation, just like "wasn't technically possible" is an explanation and right now we just want to stick to the "bare" fact that everyone can agree on. I have deliberately tried to make each fact as neutral as possible. So can you agree that:
10. Russia did not resume full delivery of gas to Europe after the monitors were in place."

And I forgot a fact which maybe the starting point for understanding Europe's reaction so lets call it Fact 0:

Fact 0: In December of 2008, leaders in both Russia and Ukraine publicly stated that Europe's gas supplies would not be affected by their contract dispute.

Assuming you accept facts 0 through 10, I want you to carefully read the statement about who was responsible for the gas shut-off that you quoted for me a few postings ago. (You know we might be better off conducting this dialogue by email instead of monopolising the forum...)

Fact 10 isnt correct, becouse in FACT delievery was resumed but it hasnt gone past border so it isnt correct to say that Russia hasnt resumed delievery or if you prefer it is at least desputable and both sides blame each other as before.

And i do not see how this facts can shed light on who was responsible for gas blockade. Give me at least reasanable explanation why it was done by Russia if you think it was. I already pointed that trying to blame other while YOU always one to blame is not wery smart to say the least, while to play on European prejusies about Russia is a very simple thing, and such tactics was already used before by other "young, little whanewer democracy", interesting that they have common goals, common benefactors and both leadership came to power during clolors revolutions. It is worth at least think about. Besides to make EU angry on Ukrain wasnt nessesery to turn gas off just lessen the amount and point on the thieves, dont you agree?

[BK]

As for fact 10: "Needed test delivery" is an explanation, just like "wasn't technically possible" is an explanation and right now we just want to stick to the "bare" fact that everyone can agree on. I have deliberately tried to make each fact as neutral as possible. So can you agree that:
10. Russia did not resume full delivery of gas to Europe after the monitors were in place."
...Assuming you accept facts 0 through 10, I want you to carefully read the statement about who was responsible for the gas shut-off that you quoted for me a few postings ago. (You know we might be better off conducting this dialogue by email instead of monopolising the forum...)

Fact 10 isnt correct, becouse in FACT delievery was resumed but it hasnt gone past border so it isnt correct to say that Russia hasnt resumed delievery or if you prefer it is at least desputable and both sides blame each other as before.

Again Fact 10 merely states what we both know to be true: the full resumption of European gas supplies through all previously used pipelines was not resumed when the EU monitors were in place. (We are not interested in the various explanations yet, only the facts) So why are you contesting something which no one else disagrees with?


And i do not see how this facts can shed light on who was responsible for gas blockade. Give me at least reasanable explanation why it was done by Russia if you think it was. I already pointed that trying to blame other while YOU always one to blame is not wery smart to say the least, while to play on European prejusies about Russia is a very simple thing, and such tactics was already used before by other "young, little whanewer democracy", interesting that they have common goals, common benefactors and both leadership came to power during clolors revolutions. It is worth at least think about. Besides to make EU angry on Ukrain wasnt nessesery to turn gas off just lessen the amount and point on the thieves, dont you agree?

Patience. We don't need to cloud things by references to Georgia or the U.S. or our personal opinions. We already know that that won't get us anywhere. We are not trying to establish "The Truth", or point fingers (we both agreed that is a waste of time). We are only trying to understand why Europe BELIEVES that Russia is primarily responsible for shutting off its gas supplies. We both want to be as objective as possible so the starting point has to be the facts which aren't contested by Russia, Ukraine, or the EU. "Facts" do not include conflicting explanations offered by Russia or Ukraine or Europe which either can't or haven't been proven or disproven --although they may be important when we start applying them to the agreeed upon facts. I won't agree with any conclusion at this point, although I will say that my perception and uncerstanding of what MIGHT have happened has changed since I first came on this forum) So back to the facts. If you think that I have left out crucial facts (aside from conflicting explanations) please let me know what they are and we will include them. I will likely add some more later but step by step. If we cannot agree on the facts that Russia, Ukraine and Europe already agree on (they disagree about the explanations, not the facts), then it means that your mind is already made up, regardless of the facts and there is no point in my continuing. Shall we continue?

[SiD]

Again Fact 10 merely states what we both know to be true: the full resumption of European gas supplies through all previously used pipelines was not resumed when the EU monitors were in place. (We are not interested in the various explanations yet, only the facts) So why are you contesting something which no one else disagrees with?


Patience. We don't need to cloud things by references to Georgia or the U.S. or our personal opinions. We already know that that won't get us anywhere. We are not trying to establish "The Truth", or point fingers (we both agreed that is a waste of time). We are only trying to understand why Europe BELIEVES that Russia is primarily responsible for shutting off its gas supplies. We both want to be as objective as possible so the starting point has to be the facts which aren't contested by Russia, Ukraine, or the EU. "Facts" do not include conflicting explanations offered by Russia or Ukraine or Europe which either can't or haven't been proven or disproven --although they may be important when we start applying them to the agreeed upon facts. I won't agree with any conclusion at this point, although I will say that my perception and uncerstanding of what MIGHT have happened has changed since I first came on this forum) So back to the facts. If you think that I have left out crucial facts (aside from conflicting explanations) please let me know what they are and we will include them. I will likely add some more later but step by step. If we cannot agree on the facts that Russia, Ukraine and Europe already agree on (they disagree about the explanations, not the facts), then it means that your mind is already made up, regardless of the facts and there is no point in my continuing. Shall we continue?

Alright consider that we agreed on the 10 facts. Go on.

[Guest]

As for fact 10: "Needed test delivery" is an explanation, just like "wasn't technically possible" is an explanation and right now we just want to stick to the "bare" fact that everyone can agree on. I have deliberately tried to make each fact as neutral as possible. So can you agree that:
10. Russia did not resume full delivery of gas to Europe after the monitors were in place."
...Assuming you accept facts 0 through 10, I want you to carefully read the statement about who was responsible for the gas shut-off that you quoted for me a few postings ago. (You know we might be better off conducting this dialogue by email instead of monopolising the forum...)

Fact 10 isnt correct, becouse in FACT delievery was resumed but it hasnt gone past border so it isnt correct to say that Russia hasnt resumed delievery or if you prefer it is at least desputable and both sides blame each other as before.

Again Fact 10 merely states what we both know to be true: the full resumption of European gas supplies through all previously used pipelines was not resumed when the EU monitors were in place. (We are not interested in the various explanations yet, only the facts) So why are you contesting something which no one else disagrees with?


And i do not see how this facts can shed light on who was responsible for gas blockade. Give me at least reasanable explanation why it was done by Russia if you think it was. I already pointed that trying to blame other while YOU always one to blame is not wery smart to say the least, while to play on European prejusies about Russia is a very simple thing, and such tactics was already used before by other "young, little whanewer democracy", interesting that they have common goals, common benefactors and both leadership came to power during clolors revolutions. It is worth at least think about. Besides to make EU angry on Ukrain wasnt nessesery to turn gas off just lessen the amount and point on the thieves, dont you agree?

Patience. We don't need to cloud things by references to Georgia or the U.S. or our personal opinions. We already know that that won't get us anywhere. We are not trying to establish "The Truth", or point fingers (we both agreed that is a waste of time). We are only trying to understand why Europe BELIEVES that Russia is primarily responsible for shutting off its gas supplies. We both want to be as objective as possible so the starting point has to be the facts which aren't contested by Russia, Ukraine, or the EU. "Facts" do not include conflicting explanations offered by Russia or Ukraine or Europe which either can't or haven't been proven or disproven --although they may be important when we start applying them to the agreeed upon facts. I won't agree with any conclusion at this point, although I will say that my perception and uncerstanding of what MIGHT have happened has changed since I first came on this forum) So back to the facts. If you think that I have left out crucial facts (aside from conflicting explanations) please let me know what they are and we will include them. I will likely add some more later but step by step. If we cannot agree on the facts that Russia, Ukraine and Europe already agree on (they disagree about the explanations, not the facts), then it means that your mind is already made up, regardless of the facts and there is no point in my continuing. Shall we continue?

BK I respect your posts , You are one smart dude. Sid is just an idiot ,he will try to bring every posible garbage into discusssion insted of just admitting the facts

[Guest]

...You know we can blame EU becouse they done nothing to affect Ushenko. We know that Russia hasnt much leverage on him but EU does and they could avoid truble if they heeded warnings. So EU in thier convinient apathy have some share of blame.
.

Are you a total idiot? You warned us about Ukraine --not about YOU! Look, you (Russia) has a fight with Ukraine, it ain't our f*cking business in Europe. Did you ask us to help you in Georgia? Nope. You did what you had to do and told us to keep our nose out. Ukraine was YOUR problem. But when you shut off our gas, you made it our problem. That was a biiiiigggg mistake! Cause now we am going to smile at you and pretend everything is almost normal, but only because we still need your gas --but all the time we are smiling we are gonna be making plans and building different pipelines to get energy from somewhere else as soon as possible --and its gonna be a lot sooner than you think. So Russia had better be nice to Ukraine because in two to three years Ukraine will be the only real customer you have left --and even Ukraine won't need your f*cking gas because we will sell it to her just to f*ck you the way you just f*cked us. Take away your gas and you got shit. Learn to eat it because pretty soon we ain't selling you anymore food either.

I LIKED THIS ONE

[Max]

Some interesting read from Britain. Brits as usually speak the truth boldly, it’s good chance for them to kick some impudent corrupt circles in Germany which are at fault in large extend in current EU dependence on KGB controlled “gas needle”.

Rosemary Righter in her article “Putin has given us a wake-up call: we're vulnerable to blackmail” published in The Times writes:

“Tuesday's ceremonial reopening of the taps that Gazprom should never have turned off was a propaganda stunt, no more. What went through was a trickle, halted after a few hours. Not only that, but Gazprom insisted that its “trial” shipment be moved along a pipeline that Ukraine needs for domestic use, to supply Odessa and other cities. To ship it through to Europe, Ukraine would have had to deny heating to its own citizens. Small wonder EU monitors met with Russian obstruction.”

“The Russian Prime Minister has done what no Soviet leader did - made Russia's key national asset an instrument of political blackmail. He has done it before, in 2006; he could do it again.”

“This is a Kremlin “cold war” against Ukraine's dream of belonging to the West. When Mr Putin - not Gazprom's management, note - ordered the gas to be cut off to Europe as well as Ukraine, the point he was making was political, and it was this: if shivering Europeans want secure supplies of Russian gas, they must either invest, with Gazprom, in new pipelines under the Baltic and Black seas that would bypass “unreliable” Ukraine, or trust Russia to secure Ukraine's future “reliability”. If you want your gas, in other words, hands off Ukraine.”

“Mr Putin makes no bones about it. Russian oil and gas are his weapons of choice in a battle to reassert Russian dominance over its lost empire, to weaken European resistance to that grand design, and to reclaim respect and fear for Russia as a great power. His grand strategy is to make Gazprom, the queen of the global energy chessboard, a cartel with a reach that spans China, Africa and Latin America. Gazprom is, as Mr Putin says, already “a powerful lever of economic and political influence in the world”.”

Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment...518959.ece

[BK]

Alright consider that we agreed on the 10 facts. Go on.

Ok, here is one argument why the EU holds Russia equally or more responsible for the gas shut-off:

All sides publicly agree to the following facts (I have added 4, so look at them):
1.. Russia stopped delivering gas FOR Ukraine on January 1 after negotiations for a new contract failed.
Comment: Some Europeans viewed shutting off the gas to 48 million people in the middle of winter as an attempt to blackmail Ukraine into accepting a contract it did not want. Most Europeans, however, recognised the difficulties of dealing with Ukraine and accepted that Russia had a right to do this. ALL Europeans, however, viewed this as evidence that Russia was capable of being absolutely ruthless.
2. Gas pressure in pipelines must be maintained at a certain level and additional energy provided (by so-called technical gas) in order to transmit gas
Comment: Most Europeans were simply confused by this issue and frustrated by the escalating claims and counterclaims between Russia and Ukraine and attempts to get them involved.
3. After Russia stopped delivering gas for Ukraine, Russia expected Ukraine to use its own gas supplies to transit gas to Europe
4. Instead of using its own gas, Ukraine used gas intended for Europe for technical gas and as a result delivered less gas to Europe than Russia was sending to Europe
Comment: Europeans were still confused about the exact issues involved, but they were unanimously angered at the reduction in supplies. Europe generally appeared to accept Russia’s claims that Ukraine was stealing gas but the amount was relatively small so Europe was willing to leave it for Russia and Ukraine to resolve.
5, Russia reduced the flow of gas to Europe by the amount that Ukraine was using
Comment: This made no sense to Europeans; if Ukraine had publicly announced that it was using Europe’s gas as technical gas, any cut in gas would obviously affect them directly. They knew for sure only that Russia was supposed to supply gas and Ukraine was supposed to deliver it and neither were doing what they were expected to do.
6. Ukraine continued to use Russian supplied gas for transit so Europe received even less gas
Comment: Europe was truly alarmed and put pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to resolve their differences. Russia and Ukraine, however, were locked in a battle of wills and both sides viewed Europe as being weak and indecisive. Both Ukraine and Russia appeared to have the attitude that if the EU wasn’t going to help them in the dispute then they weren’t go to help the EU.
7. Ukraine reconfigured the pipeline flows to maintain domestic supplies from its reserves
Comment: Because domestic gas to Ukraine was shut-off (Fact 1) Europe accepted that Ukraine obviously had to make provisions to supply its own people from its reserves. BUT look again at fact 2. Each time you cut the supply in a pipeline you reduce the pressure which in turn greatly reduces the flow. Ukraine claimed that the Russian supply cuts had reduced the pressure so much that the gas was just sitting there. Russia accused Ukraine of stealing the gas. Europe was again caught in the middle of claims and counter-claims and simply did not have enough information to point a finger.
8. The gas was shut-off to Europe
Comment: Russia says that it shut off the gas because Ukraine was stealing it instead of delivering it. Ukraine said that they could not deliver it in such a small amount [see comment to Fact 8]. The EU had no way of knowing who was telling the truth and no choice but to get directly involved. All of the EU was angry at BOTH Ukraine and Russia.
9. The EU placed independent gas monitors in Ukraine and Russia
Comment: The EU’s primary concern was getting its gas delivered. The EU thought it had brokered a deal. With EU monitors standing there it was thought that neither side could make false claims. (The Europeans were naïve!)
10. The full resumption of European gas supplies through all previously used pipelines was not resumed when the EU monitors were in place.
Comment: Russia started delivering a small amount of gas which it wanted to go over a specific route. The Ukrainians said that they could not deliver it over that route without cutting off gas to its own people. (Ukraine’s claim was recently confirmed by the EC Energy Commissioner.) Both the EU and Ukraine repeatedly asked that Russia resume ALL gas be resumed through all available pipelines. Russia refused, saying that it first needed to test the lines and that Ukraine was blocking it. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT PUBLIC OPINION IN EUROPE BEGAN TO TURN AGAINST RUSSIA MORE THAN UKRAINE.
11. Ukraine and Russia signed new contracts
12. Russia resumed full delivery of gas through all previously used pipelines;
13. Gas supplies from Russia to Europe via Ukraine began arriving within hours, and within two days the normal supply was fully back to normal.
Comment: Russia resumed full gas deliveries. It did not require limited deliveries through specific points. Russia has still not offered any explanation why it could not do this before when the monitors were all in place. What conclusions would YOU draw from this? The EU has concluded that, whatever Ukraine did wrong, it was Russia who shut-off the gas and kept the gas off for its own political purposes.


Europeans hold both Ukraine and Russia reponsible is that they ARE responsible. Russia and Ukraine, as two soverign states, should have resolved their differences without involving the EU. They didn’t. Instead, each side tried to get EU to support their position. When Europe insisted on staying neutral, NEITHER Russia nor Ukraine appeared to care about the effect of their actions on Europe (e.g., closed factories, schools, millions of people without heat, etc). Thise Russian/Ukrainian attitude may reflect a significant cultural difference that will no likely plague Russian and European relations for you years to come. BOTH Russians and Ukrainians think that I am crazy when I tell them that their countries are responsible for the damages caused to Europe. It is very difficult even to explain this because there does not appear to be a common basis for understanding. I’ll try with another analogy.

Say a person digs a hole on their own property and a visitor falls into the hole and breaks their leg. In Europe, the person who dug the hole would likely be responsible for the broken leg. In Russia (or Ukraine), the person who fell into the hole would be responsible for his own broken leg. In Europe, a person is responsible for risks to others that he creates. In Russia/Ukraine, a person is expected to watch where is is going (if something bad happens to you, its your fault). Therefore, both Ukrainians and Russians think that Europe is also to blame because they stayed neutral. Europe considers this an insult. This is not something I want to argue about. I am simply trying to explain what appear to me to be fundamentally different assumptions about individual obligations and responsibilities. And why Europe also blames Russia.

[SiD]

Comment: Russia resumed full gas deliveries. It did not require limited deliveries through specific points. Russia has still not offered any explanation why it could not do this before when the monitors were all in place. What conclusions would YOU draw from this? The EU has concluded that, whatever Ukraine did wrong, it was Russia who shut-off the gas and kept the gas off for its own political purposes.

I would conclude that I do not know something. Why suddenly market prices are in the interests of Ukrain why not to agree on them in the first place and not interupt negotiations? To make them 20% lower this year and maintain transit price as it is? Putin and Timoshenko have a meeting and tadaaam all problems solved, what were they talking about? ( i do not suppose that you know, just interesting)

whatever ...... did wrong, it was Russia who .......... for its own political purposes

and that is interesting sentece. This is some kind of constant in relations of Russia and EU (not every member of course but somewhat in general) nowdays (or always?). Put other country than Ukrain and other thing than shut off the gas and you will have position. Quite universal.

Neutrality is fine and good but not wenn such things are at stacke like you mentioned

e.g., closed factories, schools, millions of people without heat, etc

dont you think that if they could do something to prevent it they should? Parhaps they couldnt? I think they just rather underestimated possible consiquencess of despute, i surely have (i thought they it will be shut off for Ukrain, thievery, much noise but not compliete shutt off for Euro consumers) but i am not part of some EU government they should be better informed, have advisors, analysts and all.

In Russia/Ukraine, a person is expected to watch where is is going

I do not think it is just in Russia and Ukrain but it looks like conventional wisdom, you must watch out were our you going or you can find yourself there were you do not want to be. I tear it out of context tough but really. You know if person fell becouse he holds his nose so high he should know that wholes do not care who he is or what he thinks he will fall like any other so it wont hurt for him to learn such lesson becouse better to break leg than neck.