SiD Wrote:Alright consider that we agreed on the 10 facts. Go on.
Ok, here is one argument why the EU holds Russia equally or more responsible for the gas shut-off:
All sides publicly agree to the following facts (I have added 4, so look at them):
1.. Russia stopped delivering gas FOR Ukraine on January 1 after negotiations for a new contract failed.
Comment: Some Europeans viewed shutting off the gas to 48 million people in the middle of winter as an attempt to blackmail Ukraine into accepting a contract it did not want. Most Europeans, however, recognised the difficulties of dealing with Ukraine and accepted that Russia had a right to do this. ALL Europeans, however, viewed this as evidence that Russia was capable of being absolutely ruthless.
2. Gas pressure in pipelines must be maintained at a certain level and additional energy provided (by so-called technical gas) in order to transmit gas
Comment: Most Europeans were simply confused by this issue and frustrated by the escalating claims and counterclaims between Russia and Ukraine and attempts to get them involved.
3. After Russia stopped delivering gas for Ukraine, Russia expected Ukraine to use its own gas supplies to transit gas to Europe
4. Instead of using its own gas, Ukraine used gas intended for Europe for technical gas and as a result delivered less gas to Europe than Russia was sending to Europe
Comment: Europeans were still confused about the exact issues involved, but they were unanimously angered at the reduction in supplies. Europe generally appeared to accept Russia’s claims that Ukraine was stealing gas but the amount was relatively small so Europe was willing to leave it for Russia and Ukraine to resolve.
5, Russia reduced the flow of gas to Europe by the amount that Ukraine was using
Comment: This made no sense to Europeans; if Ukraine had publicly announced that it was using Europe’s gas as technical gas, any cut in gas would obviously affect them directly. They knew for sure only that Russia was supposed to supply gas and Ukraine was supposed to deliver it and neither were doing what they were expected to do.
6. Ukraine continued to use Russian supplied gas for transit so Europe received even less gas
Comment: Europe was truly alarmed and put pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to resolve their differences. Russia and Ukraine, however, were locked in a battle of wills and both sides viewed Europe as being weak and indecisive. Both Ukraine and Russia appeared to have the attitude that if the EU wasn’t going to help them in the dispute then they weren’t go to help the EU.
7. Ukraine reconfigured the pipeline flows to maintain domestic supplies from its reserves
Comment: Because domestic gas to Ukraine was shut-off (Fact 1) Europe accepted that Ukraine obviously had to make provisions to supply its own people from its reserves. BUT look again at fact 2. Each time you cut the supply in a pipeline you reduce the pressure which in turn greatly reduces the flow. Ukraine claimed that the Russian supply cuts had reduced the pressure so much that the gas was just sitting there. Russia accused Ukraine of stealing the gas. Europe was again caught in the middle of claims and counter-claims and simply did not have enough information to point a finger.
8. The gas was shut-off to Europe
Comment: Russia says that it shut off the gas because Ukraine was stealing it instead of delivering it. Ukraine said that they could not deliver it in such a small amount [see comment to Fact 8]. The EU had no way of knowing who was telling the truth and no choice but to get directly involved. All of the EU was angry at BOTH Ukraine and Russia.
9. The EU placed independent gas monitors in Ukraine and Russia
Comment: The EU’s primary concern was getting its gas delivered. The EU thought it had brokered a deal. With EU monitors standing there it was thought that neither side could make false claims. (The Europeans were naïve!)
10. The full resumption of European gas supplies through all previously used pipelines was not resumed when the EU monitors were in place.
Comment: Russia started delivering a small amount of gas which it wanted to go over a specific route. The Ukrainians said that they could not deliver it over that route without cutting off gas to its own people. (Ukraine’s claim was recently confirmed by the EC Energy Commissioner.) Both the EU and Ukraine repeatedly asked that Russia resume ALL gas be resumed through all available pipelines. Russia refused, saying that it first needed to test the lines and that Ukraine was blocking it. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT PUBLIC OPINION IN EUROPE BEGAN TO TURN AGAINST RUSSIA MORE THAN UKRAINE.
11. Ukraine and Russia signed new contracts
12. Russia resumed full delivery of gas through all previously used pipelines;
13. Gas supplies from Russia to Europe via Ukraine began arriving within hours, and within two days the normal supply was fully back to normal.
Comment: Russia resumed full gas deliveries. It did not require limited deliveries through specific points. Russia has still not offered any explanation why it could not do this before when the monitors were all in place. What conclusions would YOU draw from this? The EU has concluded that, whatever Ukraine did wrong, it was Russia who shut-off the gas and kept the gas off for its own political purposes.
Europeans hold both Ukraine and Russia reponsible is that they ARE responsible. Russia and Ukraine, as two soverign states, should have resolved their differences without involving the EU. They didn’t. Instead, each side tried to get EU to support their position. When Europe insisted on staying neutral, NEITHER Russia nor Ukraine appeared to care about the effect of their actions on Europe (e.g., closed factories, schools, millions of people without heat, etc). Thise Russian/Ukrainian attitude may reflect a significant cultural difference that will no likely plague Russian and European relations for you years to come. BOTH Russians and Ukrainians think that I am crazy when I tell them that their countries are responsible for the damages caused to Europe. It is very difficult even to explain this because there does not appear to be a common basis for understanding. I’ll try with another analogy.
Say a person digs a hole on their own property and a visitor falls into the hole and breaks their leg. In Europe, the person who dug the hole would likely be responsible for the broken leg. In Russia (or Ukraine), the person who fell into the hole would be responsible for his own broken leg. In Europe, a person is responsible for risks to others that he creates. In Russia/Ukraine, a person is expected to watch where is is going (if something bad happens to you, its your fault). Therefore, both Ukrainians and Russians think that Europe is also to blame because they stayed neutral. Europe considers this an insult. This is not something I want to argue about. I am simply trying to explain what appear to me to be fundamentally different assumptions about individual obligations and responsibilities. And why Europe also blames Russia.